Commodities Buzz: Global crude oil demand forecast to grow by 0.2 million barrel per day in 2026, says OPEC
OPEC stated in its latest monthly update that global oil demand is forecast to grow by 0.2 mb/d in 2026, y-o-y, unchanged from last month?s assessment. The OECD oil demand is forecast to ease by about 0.2 mb/d, while the non-OECD oil demand is forecast to grow by about 0.4 mb/d. Global oil demand in 2027 is forecast to grow by about 2.6 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from previous month?s assessment. The OECD oil demand is forecast to grow by about 0.5 mb/d, while the non-OECD oil demand is forecast to grow by about 2 mb/d.
OPEC noted further that Non-DoC liquids production (i.e., liquids production from countries not participating in the Declaration of Cooperation) is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2026, unchanged from last month?s assessment. The main drivers of liquids production growth are expected to be Brazil, the US, Canada, and Argentina. In 2027, non-DoC liquids production is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, also unchanged from last month?s assessment. This growth will mainly be driven by Qatar, Canada, Brazil, and Argentina. Natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids from countries participating in the DoC are expected to increase by about 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, to average 8.7 mb/d in 2026. Further growth of about 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, is forecast for 2027, to average about 8.9 mb/d. In October, crude oil production by countries participating in the DoC increased by 2.04 mb/d, m-o-m, to average about 41.23 mb/d, according to available secondary sources.
Preliminary September 2026 data show that OECD commercial oil inventories decreased by 14.6 mb, m-o-m, to stand at 2,811 mb. At this level, OECD commercial stocks were 57.3 mb lower, y-o-y, 4.5 mb above the latest five-year average, and 156.2 mb below the 2015?2019 average. Within the components, crude stocks increased by 0.1 mb, while product stocks decreased by 14.7 mb, m-o-m. OECD commercial crude oil stocks stood at 1,353 mb. This was 23.8 mb higher, y-o-y, 29.7 mb above the latest five-year average and 82.1 mb below the 2015?2019 average.
OECD total product stocks stood at 1,458 mb in September. This was 81.1 mb lower, y-o-y, 25.2 mb below the latest five-year average and 74.1 mb below the 2015?2019 average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks decreased in September by 0.3 days, m-o-m, to 60.3 days. This was 1.4 days lower, y-o-y, 0.2 days below the latest five-year average, and 2.1 days below the 2015? 2019 average.
According to OPEC, the demand for DoC crude in 2026 (i.e., crude from countries participating in the DoC) remains unchanged from last month?s assessment at 42.1 mb/d, 0.6 mb/d lower, y-o-y. The demand for DoC crude in 2027 also remains unchanged from last month?s assessment at 43.9 mb/d, which is about 1.8 mb/d higher, y-o-y.
Powered by Commodity Insights