Agri Buzz: Shortfall in rainfall and El Nino effects may pose some risks to both kharif and rabi output

Reserve Bank of India stated in its latest monthly update that real GVA in agriculture and allied activities grew by 3.6 per cent in Q1:2026-27, lower than a year earlier. Robust growth in allied activities supported the overall growth in this sector. The shortfall and regional unevenness of Southwest monsoon and El Nino effects may pose some risks to both kharif and rabi output, though non-farm rural activities have shown greater resilience in recent years. The Southwest monsoon, after remaining weak in June, gained significant momentum subsequently, covering the entire country by July 9, 2026. Monsoon remained 1.0 per cent above the long period average (LPA) in July and supported kharif sowing. As of September 30, 2026, the cumulative rainfall was 12.6 per cent below the Long Period Average.

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