Economic Buzz: UK manufacturing output expected to stabilise in the next three months

UK manufacturing output is expected to stabilise in the next three months, according to the latest quarterly CBI Industrial Trends Survey. That follows a decline in the three months to October, which extended a period of generally flat or falling production that began in mid-2022. The latest decline in output volumes was broad-based, driven particularly by declines in the food, drink & tobacco, chemicals and metal products sub-sectors.

However, the fall in output was slower than the average seen over this year so far, and manufacturers expect output to be broadly flat in the three months to January. Nonetheless, labour-related constraints to near-term output have risen: the share of manufacturers citing skilled labour as a constraint to production jumped to its highest since January 2025. Similarly, limitations from “other labour” availability rose to the highest since mid-2022.

The volume of total new orders also fell in October, though at the slowest pace since April 2025, reflecting declines in both domestic and export orders. Manufacturers expect total orders to decline again in the three months to January, at a similar pace. This comes as manufacturing competitiveness deteriorated in all major markets.

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