Gold caught in a $200 corridor as global forces pull prices in opposite directions

Gold has been caught in a tug-of-war between mounting monetary headwinds and resilient safe-haven demand, keeping prices confined to a tight $168 range between $4,091 and $4,259 an ounce so far this month. Sticky inflation, a firmer US dollar and rising expectations of tighter monetary policy, alongside elevated global bond yields, continue to cap bullion?s upside. However, sustained central-bank accumulation and persistent geopolitical uncertainty are helping cushion the downside. China remains a key pillar of support, with its central bank adding 23 tonnes to reserves in September ? its largest monthly purchase since October 2023 ? extending its buying streak to 23 consecutive months. Chinese gold ETFs also attracted a third straight month of inflows, adding 11 tonnes and lifting holdings to a record 304 tonnes. Nevertheless, volatile oil prices and uncertainty over the inflation and interest-rate outlook continue to cloud the market direction. With neither bulls nor bears firmly in control, gold remains in consolidation mode, with a decisive move in US real yields, the dollar or geopolitical sentiment likely to determine its next breakout.

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