Commodities Buzz: World refined Copper production to rise 3.4% in 2027, usage to gain 2.5%
The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) stated yesterday that world copper mine production is expected to increase by 1.3% in 2026, with growth of about 3.1% forecast in 2027. It noted that 2026 world mine production growth was revised down to 1.3% from the 1.6% anticipated in the Group’s April 2026 forecasts, mainly reflecting downward revisions made for Chilean, Chinese and Indonesian production.
Global growth this year is mainly attributed to additional production from the ramp-up of Oyu Tolgoi (Mongolia), Batu Hijau (Indonesia) and Malmyz (Russia) mines; the expansion at Julong (China) and Svaytogor (Russia) mines; higher output at Antamina (Peru); the processing of stockpile ore at Cobre Panama and an expected recovery from the previous year’s constrained output at other mines.
World refined copper production is forecast to rise by about 0.4% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027. In 2026, world refined copper production is expected to rise by a modest 0.4%. Although global refined production will continue to benefit from new and ramp-up capacity, primary electrolytic refined production is expected to decline as a result of constrained availability of concentrates, partially offsetting growth in SX-EW and secondary (from scrap) output.
World apparent refined copper usage is expected to increase by about 1.5% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027. ICSG’s projection of refined copper usage growth for 2026 was revised slightly down compared to the Group’s April 2026 forecast, mainly reflecting downward revisions for the Middle East, North America and EU. Global refined usage growth for 2026 is now anticipated to be 1.5%. Chinese apparent usage is expected to rise by 2.5%, and usage in the rest of the world is anticipated to remain essentially unchanged. China’s share of world refined copper usage is currently 59%.
World refined copper balance projections indicate a surplus of about 104,000 tonnes for 2026 and 368,000 tonnes for 2027.
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