Commodities Buzz: Global oil supply rises 2.5M bpd in September, says IEA

Global oil supply increased by 2.5 million barrels per day (bpd) to 102.3 million bpd in September as Gulf producers ramped up output and exports despite continued disruptions to regional energy infrastructure, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said Wednesday. Oil supply is projected to post an average annual decline of 5.8 mb/d, to 100.7 mb/d, this year, before reversing course and rising by 7.7 mb/d in 2027. Renewed attacks in the Gulf leave the recovery fragile. According to the IEA's Oil Market Report, the increase was driven by higher output from the OPEC+ group, which rose by 2.1 million bpd during the month. World oil demand is forecast to fall by 2.5 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q26 and 2.6 mb/d on average in 2026. As the Iran war manifests itself through restricted product availability, soaring fuel prices and a deteriorating economic outlook, diesel will register 25% of the drop. A partial recovery, of 2 mb/d, will leave 2027 global oil use 620 kb/d, or 0.6%, below 2025 levels.

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