Economic Buzz: OPEC says that economic growth across major economies has held up well so far this year

OPEC stated in a latest monthly update yesterday that economic growth across a number of major economies has held up well so far this year, underscoring the underlying resilience of the global economy. This is despite geopolitical conflicts, renewed inflationary pressures and rising global bond yields. In OECD economies, the United States contributed to this positive momentum, with an upward revision to its 1H26 GDP growth further supporting the growth outlook. Meanwhile, the Eurozone and Japan continued to record modest expansions since the beginning of the year, also slightly above market expectations.

Elsewhere, growth in non-OECD economies has been particularly robust. This was supported by global investment in AI, strong expansion in international trade and fiscal measures that have helped cushion these economies from the impact of higher energy costs. In China, exports and manufacturing are expected to be the key drivers of economic growth, supported by the continued expansion of the high-end technology sector. In India, government spending is expected to continue supporting the economy via infrastructure investments, while the services sector remains a key driver of the economy and manufacturing benefits from structural reforms. Brazil has maintained steady growth, supported by its commodities sector and domestic resilience, while Russia's economy contracted at the beginning of the year, recovered in 2Q26 and is now expected to maintain stable growth for the remainder of 2026.

According to OPEC, this resilience is expected to be sustained towards the end of the year and in 2027. Robust momentum in AI spending, coupled with consumer spending across the major economies, is anticipated to remain the principal driver of growth, complemented in China by continued government-led support and India’s considerable growth dynamic. While moderation in geopolitical tensions may provide some further upside to global economic growth, the evolution of inflation and related developments in global financial conditions require close monitoring. Economic activity in 1H26 and the expected continuation of solid momentum in 2H26 broadly confirm the steady pace of global economic expansion, leaving the global growth forecast unchanged at 3% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027.

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