Commodities Buzz: IMF highlights volatile crude oil but notes pick up in Hormuz traffic

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has stated today that crude oil prices have been volatile since the April 2026 World Economic Outlook (WEO), reflecting the ebb and flow of the war in the Middle East. As shipments through the Strait of Hormuz nearly halted, disrupting about 20 percent of global oil supply, oil prices peaked in late March at $126 a barrel, reflecting extreme tightness in the physical market, visible in the Dubai-Brent spread widening to $54. The market adjusted through increased production outside the Persian Gulf (notably in Brazil, Kazakhstan, the United States, and Venezuela); a drawdown of oil inventories, especially through the International Energy Agency (IEA) emergency stocks release, and of China?s stocks; and a compression of crude oil demand, especially large in absolute terms, from China. In early June, the market stabilized at about $100 a barrel, with a supply deficit of 1.9 million barrels a day (mb/d) being covered by rapidly depleting reserves. Refined petroleum product markets have been affected more than crude oil markets, with prices still between 70 percent and 95 percent above prewar levels. Refinery outages and damage in the Gulf and Russia have chipped away about 20 percent of the international supply of refined products, and export curbs have further tightened markets. While the Strait of Hormuz remained mostly closed for Gulf oil exports until the end of August, traffic picked up significantly in September.

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