GIFT Nifty points to positive opening as oil retreats, Dow futures rise
GIFT Nifty:
GIFT Nifty October 2026 futures rise 31 points, signalling a positive opening for the Nifty 50.
US President Donald Trump said on Sunday, 11 October, that Russia and Ukraine had agreed to an immediate energy ceasefire, aimed at halting attacks on energy infrastructure. However, the announcement lacked details on the terms and duration of the proposed truce, and neither side had confirmed the agreement at the time of reporting. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Kyiv was prepared to accept the ceasefire if Moscow agreed to it. The development comes amid escalating attacks on energy infrastructure and concerns over disruptions to global fuel supplies.
Meanwhile, Russia partially lifted its diesel export ban with effect from 10 October, following an agreement between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Trump to supply diesel to the US and international markets. The move allows up to 500,000 metric tonnes of diesel to be supplied to foreign markets at this stage, according to reports citing the Russian government. Trump had earlier announced plans for Russia to supply more than 300,000 tonnes immediately, followed by 500,000 tonnes in November and additional volumes thereafter. However, analysts have questioned whether the increased supplies would be sufficient to materially ease global fuel prices, given ongoing disruptions to refining capacity.
In India, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) announced a series of measures on 10 October 2026 to ensure orderly functioning of the foreign exchange market amid pressure on the rupee. The central bank also opened a special window, effective 12 October, to meet the entire daily US dollar requirements of three state-owned oil marketing companies - Indian Oil Corporation, Bharat Petroleum Corporation and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation - through designated banks. The facility will remain in place until further notice.
In separate circulars, the RBI prohibited the rebooking of cancelled rupee-linked foreign exchange derivative contracts, while allowing rollovers on maturity subject to existing regulations. It also reduced the threshold for taking foreign exchange derivative positions without establishing underlying exposure from $100 million to $5 million, both for contracted exposures hedged through authorised dealers and for exchange-traded currency derivatives involving the rupee.
The RBI further required authorised dealers to obtain an undertaking from users confirming that the same underlying exposure had not been hedged with another authorised dealer. In addition, it introduced a Foreign Exchange Risk Reserve (FERR) requirement for eligible rupee-linked foreign exchange derivative contracts with a notional value exceeding $2 million. Under the rule, authorised dealers must maintain a cash reserve with the RBI equivalent to 20% of the rupee value of each eligible contract. The requirement applies to contracts used to hedge current-account transactions in which the user purchases foreign currency against the rupee.
The measures are intended to strengthen market discipline and risk management and support orderly functioning of the foreign exchange market.
Institutional Flows:
Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) sold shares worth Rs 3,568.90 crore, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were net buyers of Rs 4,743.26 crore in the Indian equity market on 9 October 2026, according to provisional data.
FPIs sold shares worth Rs 45,125.67 crore in October through 9 October 2026. This follows net selling of Rs 45,536.89 crore in September 2026, while FPIs were net buyers of Rs 17,366 crore in August 2026.
Global Markets:
US stock futures pointed to a positive opening on Monday, with Dow futures rising 174 points. However, investors remained cautious ahead of key US inflation data and the start of the September-quarter earnings season.
Asian indices traded mixed on Monday amid geopolitical uncertainty and caution ahead of corporate earnings. Japan's cash equity market remained closed for Sports Day.
US stocks ended higher on Friday, with all three major indices advancing and posting weekly gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 423.31 points, or 0.83%, to 51,654.95. The S&P 500 gained 46.18 points, or 0.59%, to 7,811.54, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 172.83 points, or 0.64%, to 27,366.17.
Crude oil prices declined on Monday as expectations of additional Russian diesel supplies and a potential Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire eased some concerns over supply disruptions. Brent crude futures fell around 1.5% to $103.18 a barrel. However, continued tensions in the Middle East and attacks on shipping routes kept supply risks in focus.
Domestic Market:
The key equity benchmarks ended sharply higher on Friday, snapping a two-session losing streak. Easing crude oil prices and improved global sentiment boosted investor appetite following Thursday?s steep selloff. US President Donald Trump?s decision to rule out a military strike on Iran before the 3 November midterm elections eased immediate concerns over further escalation in the Middle East. Sentiment was further supported by strong buying in IT stocks after Tata Consultancy Services reported its Q2 FY27 results. The Nifty closed above the 22,500 mark, while all sectoral indices on the NSE ended higher except the Nifty Oil & Gas index.
The S&P BSE Sensex jumped 879.09 points or 1.23% to 72,472.33. The Nifty 50 index added 288.65 points or 1.30% to 22,520.45.
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