Trump-Xi Summit, PMI data releases to remain in focus
Dalal Street heads into the new week carrying the weight of two defining blows delivered in quick succession. The Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points on 16 September, making it the Fed's first hike since 2023, and signalled clearly that the job is not done, with most officials projecting at least one more move this year. The dot plot's hawkish tilt sent the US 10-year yield surging toward 4.96%, squeezing the yield differential that attracts foreign capital into Indian equities and pushing the rupee to Rs 95.79 against the dollar.
On the energy front, Brent surged as high as $109.68 during the week before partially retreating after Saudi Arabia announced a phased restoration of its drone-damaged East-West pipeline, which is an alternative export route around the contested Strait of Hormuz. Relief, however, remains tentative. It is the speed of crude's move ? from below $90 to nearly $110 in a matter of weeks ? that is most unsettling, making corporate cost forecasts difficult to anchor and earnings visibility poor.
Domestically, India's inflation data confirmed the energy shock is now firmly embedded in price indices. Retail inflation rose to 4.82% in August ? its highest since December 2024 ? while wholesale inflation climbed to 9.92%, with broad-based pressure across chemicals, textiles, and basic metals. Together, these prints remove any near-term prospect of RBI easing.
The focus, during this data lean weak, would remain on the President Trump and President Xi Summit that would be held in Washington next week. The announcements pertaining to agricultural goods, energy, sanctions and rare earths would be closely watched.
In India, the Infrastructure Output for the month of August would be announced on Monday (21 September 2026). The infrastructure output in India rose by 5.4% from the previous year in July of 2026, extending the upwardly revised, ten-month high of 6% in the previous month.
On Wednesday (23 September 2026), the flash reading for the HSBC Manufacturing PMI, the HSBC Services PMI and the HSBC Composite PMI for September 2026 would be made public.
India's HSBC Manufacturing PMI eased to 52.8 in August 2026 from 53.5 in July, revised down from the preliminary estimate of 52.9, and marking the weakest improvement in the sector's health in five years.
On Friday (25 September 2026), the Foreign Exchange Reserves position for the period ended on September 18 would be made public. Foreign Exchange Reserves in India increased to $785,710 million in September 4 from $740,800 million in the previous week.
In China, the Loan Prime Rate for one-year and five-year tenors for September 2026 would be announced on Monday (21 September 2026). The People's Bank of China kept its key lending rates at record lows for a 15th straight month in August 2026. The one-year loan prime rate (LPR) was kept at 3.0%, while the five-year LPR remained at 3.5%.
In the United States, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index for the month of August would be unveiled on Monday (21 September 2026). The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) edged down to -0.08 in July 2026 from 0.06 in June, signaling a slight deterioration in US economic activity.
On Tuesday (22 September 2026), the ADP Employment Change Weekly figures would be made public. US private employers added an average of 16,250 jobs per week in the four weeks ending August 29, 2026, according to the ADP Research Institute, up from an average weekly gain of 12,250 in the previous four-week period.
On Wednesday (23 September 2026), the flash reading for the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, the S&P Global Services PMI and the S&P Global Composite PMI for September 2026. would be made public.
The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI was at 53.9 for a third consecutive month in August of 2026, revised higher from the flash estimate of 53.2. Both output and new order growth eased in the period.
The S&P Global US Services PMI rose to 56.5 in August of 2026 from 54.6 in July, revised lower from the flash estimate of 56.8. It marked the sharpest expansion in private activity since December of 2020.
The S&P Global US Composite PMI came in at 56 in August 2026, unrevised from the preliminary estimate and above July's reading of 54.5. The data showed that private-sector growth accelerated for the third month in a row, reaching its highest level in 52 months.
On Thursday (24 September 2026), the Current Account figures for the second quarter would be released. The United States current account deficit widened to a seasonally adjusted $226.8 billion in the first quarter of 2026 from a revised $221.1 billion in the last quarter of 2025.
Lastly, on Friday (25 September 2026), the Durable Goods Orders for August 2026 would be announced. New orders for US-manufactured durable goods rose by 1.1% month-over-month to $339.3 billion in July 2026, following an upwardly revised 0.5% increase in June.
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