GIFT Nifty hints at cautious rebound ahead of Fed rate verdict
GIFT Nifty:
GIFT Nifty September 2026 futures were up 31.50 points, indicating a mildly positive start for the Nifty 50.
India's Unified Payments Interface (UPI) will roll out a targeted Merchant Discount Rate (MDR) regime effective 15 October 2026, ending a years-long blanket zero-MDR policy to build a self-sustaining funding base for network infrastructure, cybersecurity, and platform scalability. Under the new guidelines notified by the National Payments Corporation of India (NPCI) and the Reserve Bank of India, a standard 0.4% MDR?capped at Rs 300 for high-ticket purchases?will apply strictly to commercial person-to-merchant (P2M) payments above Rs 2,000, while essential utilities and fuel will draw a flat Rs 5 fee and capital market transfers are levied at 0.02%. Retail consumers and individual peer-to-peer (P2P) transfers remain entirely insulated from charges, as do small merchants processing under Rs 1 lakh a month and all transactions up to Rs 2,000, which together account for over 95% of daily UPI transaction volumes.
Institutional Flows:
Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) sold shares worth Rs 2,977.86 crore, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were net buyers to the tune of Rs 2,686.05 crore in the Indian equity market on 15 September 2026, according to provisional data.
FPIs sold shares worth Rs 15544.65 crore in September so far, through 15 September 2026. This follows net cash purchases of Rs 17,366 crore in August 2026, while they were net buyers of Rs 6,731.97 crore in July 2026.
Global Markets:
Most Asian equity benchmarks traded higher on Wednesday, supported by regional gains ahead of the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy announcement. The upward movement occurred alongside elevated crude oil prices and higher US Treasury yields.
In Japan, trade deficit widened significantly to JPY 1,105.6 billion in August 2026 from JPY 294.1 billion a year earlier. It marked the fourth consecutive month of deficit and the largest since January, as imports grew faster than exports. Imports surged 28.0% year-on-year to JPY 11,153.9 billion, following a 27.9% rise in July, marking the strongest growth since November 2022. Exports rose 19.3% to JPY 10,048.4 billion.
US indices declined on Tuesday, driven by positioning ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting and rising bond yields. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 328.09 points, or 0.63%, to 52,093.11; the S&P 500 declined 0.45% to 7,585.73; and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.78% to 25,981.57. Certain technology shares recorded advances, with Qualcomm gaining over 4%, and Advanced Micro Devices and Coherent each rising approximately 2%.
The Federal Reserve is scheduled to release its interest rate decision on Wednesday. Market pricing reflects expectations of a 25-basis-point increase from the existing target range of 3.5% to 3.75%. Market attention is focused on the policy statement and accompanying commentary regarding inflation, economic conditions, and projected interest rate adjustments.
Domestic Market:
The key equity benchmarks ended sharply lower on Tuesday, reversing early gains. Rising crude oil prices and higher US Treasury yields weighed on sentiment. The sell-off intensified as investors awaited the US Federal Reserve's policy decision on Wednesday. The Fed is widely expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points. The S&P BSE Sensex tanked 777.94 points, or 1.04%, to 74,003.82. The Nifty 50 index lost 279.50 points, or 1.19%, to 23,118.60, ending at its lowest level in five months.
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