Economic Buzz: Global central banks turn hawkish on monetary policy amid persistent energy pressures, notes OPEC

Monetary policy has shifted somewhat more hawkishly over the past month as persistent energy pressures and resilient economic activity have reduced the scope for further easing, OPEC noted in its September 2026 Monthly Oil Market Report. The Fed kept the federal funds rate at 3.50?3.75% in July, while subsequent meeting minutes showed that a broader group considered further tightening likely if inflation failed to moderate. This message was reinforced by more hawkish communication at the Jackson Hole meeting, as well as a relatively strong August labour-market report. The ECB held rates in July following its June increase to 2.25%, but August inflation accelerated to 3.3%, reinforcing the likelihood of additional tightening if inflation persists. The BoJ likewise held its policy rate at 1.0% in July, but firmer inflation and continued yen weakness have increased expectations of another increase, potentially as early as September. Emerging-market settings remain more mixed, with the RBI assessing whether higher commodity prices may feed into broader inflation. The BCB and CBR have both continued to engage in easing, albeit at a reduced pace of 25 basis points. The Russian step was accompanied by downward revisions to the growth outlook and upward revisions to the inflation forecast, indicating increasingly limited space to act for the CBR.

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