GIFT Nifty signals cautious start as oil prices, Fed bets weigh on sentiment
GIFT Nifty:
GIFT Nifty September 2026 futures fell 31 points, indicating a cautious start for the Nifty 50. Sentiment is likely to remain under pressure amid elevated crude oil prices, renewed US-Iran tensions and rising expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September following stronger-than-expected US jobs data.
The NSE has revised its equity pre-open session rules from 7 September 2026, while retaining the overall 9:00 am to 9:15 am window. Under the new framework, market and limit orders can be placed, modified or cancelled between 9:00 am and 9:05 am, while only limit orders are allowed from 9:05 am to 9:10 am. Order matching and opening price determination will take place from 9:10 am to 9:12 am, followed by a buffer period until 9:15 am before continuous trading begins. The changes are aimed at making the opening auction more structured and strengthening price discovery, in line with principles used for the Closing Auction Session. Market orders receive priority during matching, with eligible market orders matched first before residual market orders are matched with limit orders.
Institutional Flows:
Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) sold shares worth Rs 3,111.94 crore, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were net buyers to the tune of Rs 8,930.12 crore in the Indian equity market on 4 September 2026, according to provisional data.
FPIs sold shares worth Rs 8402.61 crore in September so far, through 4 September 2026. This follows net cash purchases of Rs 17,366 crore in August 2026, while they were net buyers of Rs 6,731.97 crore in July 2026.
Global Markets:
Most Asian stocks advanced on Monday, 7 September 2026, after a stronger-than-expected US jobs report boosted optimism over global growth. However, the data also increased expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September. At the same time, rising oil prices and fresh US-Iran tensions kept investors cautious.
US cash equity markets will remain closed on Monday for the Labor Day holiday. Regular trading will resume on Tuesday. US stock futures were down 147 points in early Asian trade.
Wall Street ended lower on Friday after the stronger-than-expected jobs report revived concerns over the Fed's interest-rate outlook. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.51%, while the S&P 500 declined 0.38% and the Nasdaq Composite shed 0.29%.
The US Labor Department reported that nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000 in August, well above economists' expectations for a 56,000 rise. The unemployment rate remained at 4.1%. The labour-force participation rate edged up to 61.6%. Payroll gains for June and July were also revised higher by a combined 55,000.
The strong employment data strengthened expectations of a Fed rate hike at its 15-16 September meeting.
Attention will now shift to US inflation data due later this week. The August consumer price index report, scheduled for Friday, could provide further clues on the Fed's policy path. A stronger inflation reading could reinforce expectations of a rate hike, while softer data could support the case for keeping rates unchanged.
Oil prices moved higher as tensions between the US and Iran escalated over the weekend. Brent crude rose to around $96.80 a barrel.
The latest escalation followed US strikes on three Iranian oil tankers. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it had targeted three tankers and several US-linked vessels in retaliation. Iran also indicated that it plans to establish a restricted zone outside the Strait of Hormuz. The claims regarding the Iranian attacks have not been independently verified.
The developments have raised concerns over possible disruptions to oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for global energy supplies. The rise in crude prices is also adding to inflation concerns at a time when major central banks are reassessing their interest-rate paths.
Investors are also watching the European Central Bank, which is widely expected to raise its policy rate to 2.75% this week.
Domestic Market:
The key equity benchmarks ended with modest gains on Friday, snapping a four-session losing streak. The rebound was supported by positive Asian cues and easing US Treasury yields, as expectations of an imminent Federal Reserve rate hike moderated. The Nifty settled near the 23,900 level, while the Sensex also closed above 76,500 mark. Gains were led by metal and private banking stocks. Hoewver, investors remained cautious ahead of the US nonfarm payrolls report due later on Friday. The S&P BSE Sensex jumped 362.57 points or 0.48% to 76,515.43. The Nifty 50 index added 24.25 points or 0.10% to 23,897.70. In the past four sessions, the Sensex and the Nifty declined 1.44% and 1.25%, respectively.
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