Commodities Buzz: Global copper mine output drops 1.1% in first half of 2026

The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) preliminary data indicates that world copper mine production declined by 1.1% in the first half of 2026, with a decline in concentrate production of -2.6% more than offsetting an increase in solvent extraction-electrowinning (SX-EW) of 4.3%. Although global mine production benefited from additional output from projects ramping up to capacity in a number of countries, global growth was offset by important declines in concentrate production in Chile, D.R. Congo (DRC) and Indonesia. Chilean mine production declined by -6.6% mainly as a result of reduced output at El Teniente, Escondida and Spence mines. Chilean concentrate and SX-EW production was down by -8% and -1% respectively.

Preliminary data indicate that world refined copper production grew by about 2.4% in the first half of 2026, with primary production (electrolytic and electrowinning from ores) growing by 2% and secondary production (from scrap) increasing by 4.3%. Production in China and the DRC, which currently represent about 59% of global production, is estimated to have increased by a combined 5.7% (China 5.3% and DRC 7.9%). World refined copper output excluding these two countries declined by about -1.9%.

World apparent refined copper usage increased by 2.3% in the first half of 2026. World ex-China usage is estimated to have increased by 1%, and Chinese apparent demand (excluding changes in bonded/unreported stocks) is estimated to have increased by 3.2%. Chinese net refined copper imports declined by 13%.

ICSG noted that in the first half of 2026, the world refined copper balance, based on Chinese apparent usage (excluding changes in bonded/unreported stocks), indicated a preliminary surplus of about 131,000 t. This compares with a surplus of about 114,000 tonnes (t) in the same period of 2025. The world refined copper balance adjusted for estimated changes in Chinese bonded stocks suggested a market surplus of about 98,000 t.

Powered by Commodity Insights