Economic Buzz: Fed?s Barkin says market-based measures of inflation expectations remain stable

Tom Barkin, President of Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, stated today that US economy has remained resilient despite a slew of challenges primarily due to consumer spending. Real US GDP growth has averaged 2.5 percent since 2023, above estimates of its longer-run trend. Demand stayed healthy this year despite energy price shock. He noted that consumer spending makes up nearly 70 percent of the US GDP, and despite the turmoil, consumers have kept spending. He also talked about trends in inflation. PCE inflation peaked at 7.2 percent in June 2022. The Fed raised rates, and by early last year, inflation was down. Prices rose afterwards on tariffs, an oil price shock, and a flood of AI spending. However, Barkin stated that market-based measures of inflation expectations remain stable. And the current level of interest rates, many think, is still restrictive enough to bring inflation down.

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