Commodities Buzz: OPEC says global oil demand to grow by 0.6 mb/d in 2026, OECD commercial crude oil stocks down 2.5% on year
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) stated in a latest monthly update that global oil demand is forecast to grow by 0.6 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2026, y-o-y, following a slight downward revision from last month’s assessment. The OECD is forecast to slightly decline by about 40 thousand barrels per day (tb/d), while the non-OECD is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d. Global oil demand in 2027 is forecast to grow by about 2.2 mb/d, y-o-y, following an upward revision from last month’s assessment. The OECD is forecast to grow by about 0.3 mb/d, while the non-OECD is forecast to grow by about 1.8 mb/d.
Non-DoC liquids production (i.e., liquids production from countries not participating in the Declaration of Cooperation) is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2026, unchanged from last month’s assessment. The main drivers of liquids production growth are expected to be Brazil, the US, Canada, and Argentina. In 2027, non-DoC liquids production is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, also unchanged from last month’s assessment. This growth will mainly be driven by Qatar, Canada, Brazil, and Argentina.
Natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids from countries participating in the DoC are forecast to increase by about 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, to average 8.8 mb/d in 2026. Additional growth of about 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, is forecast for 2027, to average about 8.9 mb/d. In July, crude oil production by countries participating in the DoC increased by 1.42 mb/d, m-o-m, to average about 37.66 mb/d, according to available secondary sources.
Preliminary June 2026 data shows that OECD commercial oil inventories dropped by 26.4 mb, m-o-m, to stand at 2,729 mb. At this level, OECD commercial stocks were 59.6 mb lower, y-o-y, 66.5 mb below the latest five-year average and 218.5 mb below the 2015–2019 average. Within the components, crude stocks decreased by 15.3 mb, while product stocks decreased by 11.1 mb, m-o-m. OECD commercial crude oil stocks stood at 1,296 mb. This was 33.6 mb lower, y-o-y, 54.2 mb below the latest five-year average and 169.3 mb below the 2015–2019 average.
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