Economic Buzz: Global economic resilience expected to be sustained through second half of 2026, says OPEC

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) stated in a latest monthly update that The global economic growth dynamic in 1H26 has remained broadly resilient, with economic activities in several major economies holding up very well. Growth in non-OECD Asian economies has been particularly robust, supported by global investment in AI, a steady expansion in international trade and fiscal measures that have helped cushion the impact of higher energy costs. In China, growth moderated in 2Q26 but remained well supported by government-led stimulus, with the authorities signalling a further step-up in counter-cyclical measures for 2H26. The United States has continued to show solid underlying growth momentum, while headline output moderated in 2Q26; this largely reflected likely temporary trade and inventory dynamics, with private domestic demand positively accelerating markedly over the same period. The Eurozone recorded a modest expansion in 2Q26, slightly ahead of market expectations, although momentum remains uneven across member states. Brazil has maintained a steady growth path, supported by its commodities sector and domestic resilience, while Russia's economy contracted temporarily at the beginning of the year but already recovered in 2Q26 and is expected to maintain a steady growth dynamic over the remainder of 2026.

OPEC noted that this resilience is expected to be sustained through 2H26. Robust momentum in AI spending, coupled with consumer spending across the major economies, is anticipated to remain the principal driver, complemented in China by continued government-led stimulus. At the same time, potential moderations in geopolitical tensions may provide some upside for global growth in 2H26 if energy markets and trade flows stabilize further, although uncertainties remain. Reflecting the actual output levels recorded in 2Q26, the global economic growth forecast for 2026 has been marginally revised down to 3%, from 3.1% in last month's assessment. The revision is largely technical, reflecting selective output levels rather than a change in the underlying global growth dynamic, which continues to point to resilient momentum through the remainder of the year. Growth is expected to accelerate to 3.2% in 2027, unchanged from last month's assessment.

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