Commodities Buzz: EIA forecasts Brent crude oil spot price to average around $85 per barrel in third quarter of 2026

The US EIA increased estimates of Middle East shut-in crude oil production in the coming months compared with July forecast due to continued severe constraints on Strait of Hormuz transits, which it assumes to persist through August. It now expects most crude oil production in the region to return to near pre-conflict averages in early 2027. It its latest monthly update, EIA expects ongoing disruptions of about 0.6 million barrels per day to continue through the end of next year. It noted that reduced oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz could lower global oil inventories further in the coming months and keep crude oil prices near levels from the first week of August. EIA forecasts the Brent crude oil spot price to average around $85 per barrel (b) in the third quarter of 2026 (3Q26). As inventories rebuild, with most production expected to recover by early 2027, it expects the Brent spot price to gradually fall to an average of $69/b in 2027. It expects.U.S. commercial crude oil inventories to remain below the five-year (2021?2025) low through the end of 2026.

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