Commodities Buzz: EIA says rising oil production will result in oil market shifting back to pre-conflict state of oversupply

Energy Information Administration or EIA stated in its latest Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) that On June 18, the United States and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) to end the conflict and open the Strait of Hormuz. Following the signing and increased traffic through the strait, it has raised expectations for global oil production for the rest of this year. EIA now expects most crude oil production to return to near pre-conflict averages by the end of this year and for the majority of shut-in crude oil production to be back online in the first quarter of 2027 (1Q27). It noted further that more oil production and the reestablishment of trade flows will result in less oil being taken out of inventory in the coming months than previously forecast. EIA expects global oil inventories will fall by 2.2 million barrels per day (b/d) in 3Q26 compared with more than 7 million b/d in June forecast and 5 million b/d in 2Q26. Next year, it expects that rising oil production will result in the market shifting back to the pre-conflict state of oversupply.

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