Markets Mixed as Strait of Hormuz Concerns Mount and Inflation Data Looms

S&P 500 futures edge lower and crude oil climbs following stalled U.S.-Iran talks while investors look ahead to upcoming inflation reports.

The S&P 500 closed at a record high of 7,757 last Friday. S&P 500 futures edged lower early Monday amid growing doubts that the U.S and Iran will soon strike a deal to open the Strait of Hormuz. Futures tied to the broad index were flat while Nasdaq-100 futures added 0.2%. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures shed 58 points (0.11%).

Investors will closely monitor consumer and producer price index readings due out this week for the latest insights on inflation. No major economic reports are expected on Monday.

Investor optimism that the U.S. and Iran might be close to coming to an agreement to allow vessels to freely transit the critical Hormuz strait dimmed over the weekend after Iran denied engaging in any direct negotiations with the U.S. around opening the waterway. WTI crude oil rose 1% to just above $79 a barrel on Sunday. Fed funds futures traders now price in a roughly 44% likelihood that the central bank raises rates at its September meeting, down from a 67% reading seen a week prior, according to CME?s FedWatch tool.

Goldman Sachs estimates that total US equity issuance for the full year 2026 will reach approximately $700 billion, a record high. Of this, initial public offerings (IPOs) account for slightly more than $225 billion, with the remainder?including follow-on offerings, convertible bonds and special purpose acquisition companies (SPACs)?totalling roughly $450 billion.

In Asia, Japan?s Nikkei 225 added over 0.54% while the Topix was marginally higher. The Kospi gained 0.53% and the small-cap Kosdaq advanced 1.48%. Australia?s benchmark S&P/ASX 200 was 0.54% higher.

Treasury yields fell Friday after data showed the U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23,000 jobs in July, raising fresh concerns about the labour market while dimming the immediate outlook for higher Fed interest rates. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note ? the main benchmark for mortgages, auto loans and credit card debt ? was off by more than 3 bps at 4.63%.

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