Economic Buzz: US CB leading index down 0.2% in June

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the US declined by 0.2% in June 2026 to 99.1 (2016=100), following a 0.1% increase in May. However, the LEI is down by only 0.3% over the first half of 2026, a much smaller rate of decline than its 1.1% contraction over the second half of 2025.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI) for the US increased by 0.2% in June 2026 to 114.6 (2016=100), after a similar increase of 0.2% in May. Overall, the CEI expanded by 0.4% over H1 2026, slightly more than the 0.3% growth rate over the previous six months.

The CEI?s four component indicators?payroll employment, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing and trade sales, and industrial production?are included among the data used to determine recessions in the US. All components of the CEI made positive contributions in June.

The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index (LAG) for the US was unchanged at 120.5 (2016=100) in June 2026, after a 0.1% decline in May. However, the LAG?s six-month change was firmly in positive territory at 1.1% growth over the first half of this year, reversing a decline of 0.1% over the second half of 2025.

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