Commodities Buzz: IGC cuts global grains production outlook marginally

International Grains Council or IGC stated in a latest monthly update that prospects for the 2026/27 maize harvest have been adversely affected by successive heatwaves in parts of Europe. With otherwise few changes, total grains production is forecast 5 million (m) tonne (t) lower m/m (month-on-month), at 2,422m. The reduced crop outlook has prompted a modest downward revision to the Council's use projection, placed 1m t down from previously, at 2,447m, still a record. Also factoring in a smaller carry-in, total supplies are forecast tighter, with carryover stocks (aggregate of respective local marketing years) placed 8m t lower than previously, at 610m. Sizeable availabilities should support grain shipments from the major Black Sea suppliers, but the outlook is far less certain than a month ago due to intensified Russia-Ukraine hostilities and the resulting disruption to export logistics. Largely because of a revised outlook for maize imports, trade is forecast 5m t higher, at 450m.

The Council's expectations for soyabean trade in 2025/26 (Oct/Sep) are lifted marginally, to 187m t, up by 1% y/y (year-on-year). Chiefly reflecting an uprated outlook for the US, more than offsetting a reduced figure for Brazil, the projection for global production in 2026/27 is pegged fractionally lower m/m. With consumption unchanged from before, stocks are seen a little tighter than in June. Trade is predicted at a record (+2%). The world rice supply and demand balance sheet for 2025/26 is broadly unchanged m/m. Chiefly reflecting downgraded outlooks for the US and Asian growers, the projection for world production in 2026/27 is cut by 2m t m/m.

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