Commodities Buzz: Global crude oil demand is forecast to grow by one mbpd in 2026

OPEC stated in its latest monthly Oil Market Report that global crude oil demand is forecast to grow by a healthy 1.0 million barrels per day or mb/d in 2026, y-o-y. The OECD is forecast to grow by about 0.1 mb/d, while the non-OECD is forecast to grow by about 0.9 mb/d. Global oil demand in 2027 is forecast to grow by about 1.7 mb/d, y-o-y, following an upward revision of about 0.2 mb/d from last month’s assessment. The OECD is forecast to grow by 0.2 mb/d, while the non-OECD is forecast to grow by about 1.5 mb/d. OPEC noted further that Non-DoC liquids production (i.e., liquids production from countries not participating in the Declaration of Cooperation) is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2026, unchanged from last month’s assessment.

The main drivers of liquids production growth are expected to be Brazil, the US, Canada, and Argentina. In 2027, non-DoC liquids production is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, also unchanged from last month’s assessment. The growth will mainly be driven by Qatar, Brazil, Canada, and Argentina. Natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids from countries participating in the DoC are forecast to increase by about 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, to average 8.8 mb/d in 2026. Additional growth of about 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, is forecast for 2027, to average about 8.9 mb/d. In May, crude oil production by countries participating in the DoC decreased by 0.19 mb/d, m-o-m, to average about 33.13 mb/d, according to available secondary sources.

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