Commodities Buzz: Global inflation projected to ease from 4.7% in 2026 to 3.9% next year

International Monetary Fund or IMF has stated in a latest update that global inflation is expected to pause its steady decline. Headline inflation is projected to rise from 4.1 percent in 2025 to 4.7 percent in 2026 before easing to 3.9 percent in 2027, with the increase for 2026 driven mainly by higher energy and food prices. The forecast for 2026 is revised upward by 0.3 percentage point from the April 2026 IMF update, whereas that for 2027 is revised upward by 0.2 percentage point. Inflation dynamics are expected to remain uneven across countries, reflecting differences in exchange rate pass-through, the persistence of services price inflation, labor market conditions, and the growing importance of country-specific factors. Core inflation is expected to return to target only gradually in several major economies: by mid-2027 in the United Kingdom, by the end of 2027 in Japan and the United States, and only in 2028 in the euro area. Inflation in China is expected to rise from low levels.

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