Commodities Buzz: IGC exports global grains output to slide 2.50% next year

International Grains Council or IGC stated in a latest monthly update that upward adjustments to maize crops in India, Argentina, Brazil, South Africa and Paraguay account for nearly all of this month’s 12 million tonnes (mt) increase in the world total grains (wheat and coarse grains) production forecast for 2025/26. Owing to upgraded outlooks for maize, barley and wheat, the global crop projection for 2026/27 is lifted by 13mt from May. An El Niño event is now underway and predicted to strengthen through the second half of the year. While there is an increased chance of yield variability, especially for the next southern hemisphere harvests, the impact remains uncertain at this stage. There are concerns too, about fertiliser affordability, but with a more recent fall in input prices offering some relief. Projected consumption is also hiked by 11 mt from before, with the end-season carryover increased by 3 mt.

Due to an upgrade for India, the 2025/26 world rice production estimate is lifted m/m, to a record of 546 mt (+1%). A strong El Niño event could adversely affect 2026/27 yields in key Asian producers, with global output seen little-changed y/y. The projection for trade in 2027 is maintained at a peak of 62 mt (+4%). With gains chiefly for maize and wheat, global total grains production, consumption and trade are expected to reach all-time highs in 2025/26. Carryover stocks will also build, placed 53 mt higher y/y. However, because of reduced area and anticipated poorer average yields, grains production is projected to fall by 2.50% in 2026/27, to 2,426 mt.

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