Global Weekly Economic Preview: Inflation, growth and policy signals take center stage

Global markets are set for a crucial week as investors assess the reopening of tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz following the US-Iran agreement to lift naval blockades, while a packed economic calendar offers fresh clues on inflation, growth, and monetary policy trends. Key releases from the US, Europe, and Asia-Pacific are expected to shape market sentiment and influence expectations for central bank actions in the months ahead.

USA: Investors will focus on the US core PCE price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, alongside personal income and spending data, durable goods orders, PMI surveys, GDP revisions, and consumer sentiment figures. Canada will release inflation data, while Mexico's central bank policy decision and key economic indicators from Brazil and Mexico will also be closely watched.

Europe: Attention will center on preliminary June PMI surveys, providing fresh insight into manufacturing and services activity across the Eurozone and the UK. Germany's GfK Consumer Climate and Ifo Business Climate indexes are expected to offer further clues on the region's economic recovery, while France, Italy, and Spain will release additional confidence and growth indicators.

Asia-Pacific: China's loan prime rate decision and industrial profits data will headline the calendar. Japan will release PMI surveys, Tokyo inflation figures, and the Bank of Japan's Summary of Opinions following its recent rate hike. Investors will also monitor India's flash PMIs, Australia's inflation report, and the Bank of Thailand's policy decision for signals on regional economic momentum.

Markets will also keep a close watch on developments in the Strait of Hormuz as tanker traffic resumes. Any disruption or smooth normalization of energy flows could have significant implications for oil prices, inflation expectations, and broader risk sentiment. Overall, the week is packed with high-impact economic releases and geopolitical developments that could drive volatility across currencies, commodities, bonds, and equities. Inflation readings, business activity surveys, and central bank signals will be key in determining whether the global economy continues to stabilize or faces renewed challenges in the second half of the year.

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