Economic Buzz: US CB leading index rise further in May

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the US increased slightly by 0.1% in May 2026 to 99.3 (2016=100), following a 0.2% increase in April. After these two consecutive increases, the LEI is down just 0.3% over the six months between November 2025 and May 2026, a much smaller rate of decline than its 1.3% contraction over the previous six months (May to November 2025).

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI) for the US increased by 0.2% in May 2026 to 114.6 (2016=100), after a marginal increase of 0.1% in April. Overall, the CEI expanded by 0.6% over the six months between November 2025 and May 2026, an improvement from its growth of 0.2% over the previous six months.

The CEI's four component indicators?payroll employment, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing and trade sales, and industrial production?are included among the data used to determine recessions in the US. All components of the CEI made positive contributions in May.

The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index (LAG) for the US dipped by 0.1% to 120.5 (2016=100) in May 2026, after a 0.5% increase in April. However, the LAG's six-month change was firmly in positive territory at 0.9% growth between November 2025 and May 2026, up from being flat over the previous six months (May to November 2025).

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