Commodities Buzz: IEA cuts demand growth estimate, warns of supply-side risks ahead

The International Energy Agency (IEA) lowered its 2026 global oil demand forecast, projecting a decline of 1.1 million barrels per day year-on-year, marking a downgrade of 700,000 barrels per day from its May estimate. The revision follows a sharp 5 million barrels per day contraction in second-quarter demand amid higher fuel prices and disruptions to product availability. Demand growth is expected to rebound to 2 million barrels per day in 2027 as trade flows normalize, oil prices ease, and economic conditions improve. Global oil supply is projected to fall by 3.9 million barrels per day to 102.4 million barrels per day in 2026 before recovering by 8 million barrels per day to 110.3 million barrels per day in 2027. May production slipped to 94.5 million barrels per day, down 600,000 barrels per day month-on-month and 13.6 million barrels per day below pre-conflict levels. While the US-Iran interim agreement could support a recovery in Middle East exports, operational constraints and unresolved transit arrangements continue to pose downside risks to the supply outlook.

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