Commodities Buzz: World Bank expects commodity prices to rise by 22% in 2026

According to World Banks, global economic prospects June report, disruptions to flows of energy and other commodity supplies from the Gulf region have led to sharp commodity price increases. Overall, commodity prices are expected to rise by 22 percent in 2026, in contrast to the 7 percent decline expected in January, the Bank stated. This reflects a baseline assumption that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely disrupted through July, with shipping volumes haltingly resuming thereafter, and approaching pre-conflict levels by the end of the year. These disruptions are projected to keep energy prices elevated, with the Brent crude oil price averaging $94/barrel (bbl) in 2026, an increase of 36 percent over 2025 and more than 50 percent above the January projection. European natural gas prices are anticipated to rise about 30 percent in 2026, on tightened liquefied natural gas (LNG) availability globally. The conflict has also severely disrupted global fertilizer trade, triggering sharp price increases that reflect the Gulf?s large share of global fertilizer exports and the surge in natural gas prices, a key input for nitrogen fertilizers.

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