RBI keeps rate unchanged at 5.25%

The Reserve Bank of India?s (RBI) monetary policy committee (MPC) has decided to keep the repo rate unchanged at 5.25% in its June 2026 bi-monthly monetary policy, Governor Sanjay Malhotra announced on Friday, June 5. After a detailed assessment of the evolving macroeconomic and financial developments and the outlook, the MPC voted unanimously to keep the policy repo rate under the liquidity adjustment facility (LAF) unchanged at 5.25 per cent. Consequently, the standing deposit facility (SDF) rate remains at 5.00 per cent and the marginal standing facility (MSF) rate and the Bank Rate remain at 5.50 per cent. The MPC also decided to continue with the neutral stance.

As the West Asia conflict prolongs without any meaningful resolution in sight, risks to both inflation and growth have increased. Energy markets have been volatile; crude oil reserves are declining and global commodity prices have firmed up. Faced with difficult trade-offs, monetary policy has turned more cautious, RBI noted. CPI inflation remains below the target despite the global shock as the passthrough to domestic prices has been limited. While the baseline projections point towards headline inflation firming up towards the upper tolerance level in Q3:2026-27, the impact of the supply shock is expected to wane Q4 onwards. CPI inflation for 2026-27 is projected to be 5.1 per cent with Q1 at 4.2 per cent; Q2 at 5.1 per cent; Q3 at 5.9 per cent; and Q4 at 5.4 per cent. Core inflation is projected at 4.7 per cent for 2026-27. As for growth, prolonged global supply chain disruptions, heightened volatility in global financial markets, and weather-related shocks continue to pose downside risks to the domestic growth outlook, RBI said. Real GDP growth for 2026-27 is projected at 6.6 per cent, with Q1 at 6.6 per cent; Q2 at 6.3 per cent; Q3 at 6.5 per cent; and Q4 at 6.8 per cent.

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