Economic Buzz: China?s leading indicators signal near-term weakness

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for China declined by 0.2% in March 2026 to 144.8 (2016=100), matching the 0.2% drop recorded in February. Over the six-month period from September 2025 to March 2026, the LEI contracted by 1.3%, following a steeper 2.0% decline in the preceding six months, pointing to ongoing softness in near-term economic momentum.

In contrast, the Coincident Economic Index (CEI), which reflects current economic conditions, rose by 0.8% in March to 158.2 (2016=100), after a modest 0.1% increase in February. However, its six-month growth slowed to 1.2% between September 2025 and March 2026, less than half the 2.5% expansion seen in the previous six-month period.

Overall, the data suggest that while China?s present economic activity remains stable, the pace of growth is moderating and leading indicators continue to signal headwinds in the months ahead.

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