Market Speaks: World world refined copper production to rise by 0.4% in 2026, usage growth seen at 1.6%

The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) has come up with an overview of the world balance of refined copper production and use. World copper mine production is expected to increase by 1.6% in 2026, with growth of 2.3% forecast in 2027. It noted that 2026 world mine production growth has been revised down to 1.6% from the 2.3% anticipated in the Group’s October 2025 forecasts, mainly reflecting downward revisions made to the DRC, Chile and Indonesia growth. Output at Grasberg and Kamoa mines continues to be constrained as a result of the major incidents that occurred in 2025.

Global growth is mainly attributed to additional production from the ramp-up of Oyu Tolgoi (Mongolia) and Malmyz mine (Russia), the expansion at Julong (China) and Almalyk (Uzbekistan) mines, the processing of stockpile ore at Cobre Panama and an expected recovery from the previous year’s constrained output at several mines. A higher growth of 2.3% is forecast for 2027, supported by the continued ramp-up of new/expanded capacity in a number of countries, an expected improvement in Chilean and Zambian output and a recovery of operational rates in Indonesia and the DRC.

ICSG noted that in 2026, world refined copper production is expected to rise by 0.4%. Although refined production will continue to benefit from new and ramp-up capacity, primary electrolytic refined production growth is expected to be limited by the constrained availability of concentrates, partially offsetting growth in SX-EW and secondary (from scrap) output. In 2027, global refined output is forecast to grow by 3% as a consequence of expected improvement in concentrate availability and planned expansion of SX-EW and secondary production capacity.

Global refined usage growth for 2026 is now anticipated to be 1.6% (previously 2.1%). Chinese usage is expected to rise by about 1.9% and usage in the rest of the world by 1.3%. In 2027, world refined copper usage is expected to grow by 2%. For 2026, a surplus of about 96,000 tonnes is anticipated, which compares to the deficit of 150,000 tonnes forecast in October. This shift to surplus is attributed to lower than previously anticipated copper usage and higher secondary refined production. ICSG currently expects the market to present a higher surplus of about 377,000 tonnes in 2027.

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