Economic Buzz: US business activity edges higher in April while inflation and supply pressures intensify

US business activity picked up slightly in April after nearly stalling in March, with the S&P Global US PMI Composite Output Index rising from 50.3 to 52.0, a three-month high. This indicates modest growth at the start of the second quarter, though still below levels seen last year.

The services sector remained weak, recording one of its slowest expansions in the past year. Demand softened further, with new business rising only marginally at the slowest pace in two years and exports continuing to decline. Firms linked subdued demand to uncertainty from the Middle East conflict, government policies and affordability pressures.

Manufacturing provided the main boost, with the S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI increasing from 52.3 in March to 54.0 in April, its highest since May 2022. Output and new orders rose at their fastest rates since April 2022 and May 2022 respectively, largely driven by domestic demand and stock building amid concerns over supply shortages and rising prices. Export orders, however, continued to fall.

Supply chain disruptions worsened, with supplier delivery times lengthening to the greatest extent since August 2022. Input price inflation climbed to an 11-month high and one of the steepest increases in over three years, while selling prices rose at the fastest pace since July 2022.

Employment remained weak, showing only marginal growth after a slight decline in March, marking the softest back-to-back performance since late 2024. Business confidence improved slightly but stayed historically low, especially in the services sector.

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