Monsoon rainfall likely to be 92% of long period average, says IMD

Monsoon rainfall this year will likely be below normal, the India Meteorological Department or IMD said on Monday in its first prediction of below-normal rain in 11 years. Monsoon rainfall over the country is likely to be 92% of long period average (LPA) with an error margin of +/-5%, IMD said in its first stage long range forecast for monsoon season, attributing the shortfall to the El Nino effect. The LPA of the 1971-2020 period is 87 cm. IMD defines 96-104% of LPA as normal. It noted that the spatial distribution suggests that the below-normal seasonal rainfall is most likely over many parts of the country except some areas over Northeast, Northwest and South Peninsular India, where normal to above-normal rainfall is likely. The last time India saw below-normal rainfall during the Southwest Monsoon was in 2023, although the prediction from IMD that year was for normal monsoon rainfall.