Market Speaks: Global oil demand to show robust growth of 1.3 mbpd in 2027
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) stated in its latest monthly update for April that Global oil demand growth for 2026 is forecast at 1.4 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from the previous month?s assessment. An upward revision in 1Q26 is made for China, based on actual data received amid better-than-expected performance in the country. The demand growth for 2Q26 is revised down for both the OECD and non-OECD, driven mainly by slight transitory weakness in oil demand growth, given ongoing developments in Middle East. However, this weakness is expected to be compensated in the second half of the year.
Overall, oil demand in the OECD in 2026 is projected to grow by about 0.1 mb/d, with the Americas leading growth and some additional support from OECD Europe, while oil demand in OECD Asia-Pacific is projected to slightly decline. In the non-OECD, oil demand in 2026 is forecast to see a healthy growth of 1.3 mb/d, y-o-y, driven by China, Other Asia and India, and further supported by Africa, the Middle East and Latin America. The forecast for global oil demand in 2027 also shows a robust growth of 1.3 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from the previous month?s assessment. The OECD is expected to grow by 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, while demand in the non-OECD is forecast to increase by about 1.2 mb/d.
OPEC stated further that Non-DoC liquids production (i.e. liquids production from countries not participating in the DoC) is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d in 2026 to average 54.8 mb/d, unchanged from last month?s assessment. The main drivers of liquids production growth are expected to be Brazil, the US, Canada and Argentina. In 2027, non-DoC liquids production is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d to average 55.4 mb/d, unchanged from last month?s assessment. The main drivers for liquids supply growth are expected to be Brazil, Qatar, Canada and Argentina. DoC NGLs and non-conventional liquids are forecast to grow by about 0.1 mb/d in 2026 to average 8.8 mb/d. Further growth of about 0.1 mb/d is expected in 2027, to average 8.9 mb/d. DoC crude oil production in March decreased by 7.70 mb/d, m-o-m, averaging 35.06 mb/d.
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