Commodities Buzz: Global grains output estimated to surge 6%, says IGC

International Grains Council or WGC has stated in a latest monthly update for March that the forecast for global total grains (wheat and coarse grains) production in 2025/26 is hiked by 10 million (m) tonnes (t) m/m (month-on-month), to 2,470m, mainly on upgrades for maize (including India) and wheat (Russia, Australia). Most of the larger supply is absorbed by increased consumption, pegged 8m t higher, at 2,423m, but with the stocks estimate (aggregate of respective local marketing years) also upgraded, to 632m.

At 2,470m t, world total grains production will be the largest on record in 2025/26, up by 143m t y/y, including solid gains in maize (+79m), wheat (+44m) and barley (+11m). This marks a near 6% jump in annual terms. While consumption is also forecast at a new peak (+73m t), the large supply boost will enable some stock rebuilding, pegged at a six-year high of 632m (+47m). Led by larger wheat and maize flows, total trade could reach 632m t, a y/y gain of 25m.

Tied to a projected reduction in harvested area and yields, world total grains output is projected to drop by 2% in 2026/27. With a high level of opening stocks offering only partial offsetting, total supply is forecast slightly down y/y (year-on-year). Consumption is forecast to increase for a fourth year in a row, to a new record, led by gains in food and industrial uses. After an accumulation in the prior season, carryover stocks could tighten again, while trade is forecast to be little changed overall. Reflecting downgraded figures for Brazil and India, world soyabean output in 2025/26 is seen 2m t lower m/m, at 426m, just a shade down y/y; accordingly, fractional downward adjustments are made to total use and stocks.

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