Markets Rally on Trump-Iran Talks Relief

Wall Street surged with S&P 500 up 1.1% to 6,581 amid oil price drop to $99.94 Brent after Trump's postponement of Iran attacks; Europe flipped to gains, Asia slumped pre-announcement; airlines and small caps led amid mediation hopes from Turkey, Egy

Monday?s overriding reaction in financial markets was nevertheless one of relief. The S&P 500 rose 74.52 points to 6,581.00. The Dow climbed 631.00(1.4%) to 46,208.47 and the Nasdaq composite jumped 299.15(1.4%) to 21,946.76.

Financial markets experienced cautious relief Monday after President Donald Trump announced U.S. talks with Iran toward ending their war. Oil prices eased sharply?Brent crude fell 10.9% to $99.94 from nearly $120 last week?while the S&P 500 rose 1.1% for its best day since the conflict began. Trump postponed attacks on Iran's power plants for five days to allow talks, amid a slowdown in Strait of Hormuz traffic disrupting global oil supplies.

Iran denied the talks with its parliament speaker calling it fake news to manipulate markets and state media portrayed Trump as backing down. Benchmark U.S. crude dropped to near $84 before settling at $88.13, down 10.3%. Turkey and Egypt reported speaking to both sides, signaling potential coordinated mediation.

Companies with big fuel bills that will benefit from any easing of oil prices led the market. Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings surged 6.2% while United Airlines climbed 4.5% and American Airlines rose 3.6%. Stocks of smaller companies were also particularly strong and the Russell 2000 index of smaller stocks jumped a market-leading 2.3%. It had dropped last week to 10% below its record, a sharp enough fall that professional investors have a name for it a correction.

In Europe, stock indexes immediately flipped from losses to gains following Trump?s announcement. France?s CAC 40 rose 0.8% and Germany?s DAX returned 1.2%. That compares with sharp drops for Asian stock markets which finished trading before Trump made his announcement. South Korea?s Kospi slumped 6.5% lower, Japan?s Nikkei 225 dropped 3.5% and Hong Kong?s Hang Seng fell 3.5%.

Treasury yields also eased in the bond market following Trump?s announcement. The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to 4.35% from 4.39% late Friday but it remains solidly above its 3.97% level from just before the war. Treasury yields still remain well above where they were before the war began, even after Monday?s drop. The concern is that high oil prices could keep the Federal Reserve and other central banks from cutting interest rates which would give the global economy and prices for investments a boost.

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