Stocks Dip Amid Oil Volatility and Fed Rate Fears

Stocks fell as war risks crush Fed cut odds to 27%, hiking mortgage rates and weakening home sales. Trump pushes short-term oil fixes but markets demand Strait of Hormuz stability.

The S&P 500 finished with a dip of 0.3% after coming back from an early loss of 1%. It even briefly turned higher in the last hour of trading. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 203 points (0.4%) and the Nasdaq composite fell 0.3%.

President Trump and world leaders have implemented short-term measures to curb soaring oil prices amid the war, but markets crave reduced risks to Gulf oil fields and clearance of Iran's Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of global oil flows. Late Thursday, Israeli PM Netanyahu agreed to pause attacks on an Iranian gas field at Trump's request.

War uncertainties have triggered wild swings in oil, stocks, and bonds, with Thursday's Treasury yields spiking then retreating alongside oil. Sky-high prices have traders ditching Fed rate-cut bets?now a mere 27% chance of even one in 2026 per CME Group data, versus 74% for two+ cuts just a month ago?despite Trump's demands, as the Fed holds steady to fight inflation.

Stocks of companies that mine such metals fell to some of Wall Street?s sharpest losses. Newmont slumped 6.9%, and Freeport-McMoRan fell 3.3%. Micron Technology fell 3.8% even though it reported a blowout quarter of much higher profit and revenue than analysts expected. Rivian Automotive rose 3.8% helping to limit Wall Street?s losses. It announced a partnership where Uber will invest up to $1.25 billion in the company and expects to buy 10,000 autonomous robotaxis. Uber Technologies fell 1.7%.

The two-year Treasury yield reached high of 3.96% before receding to 3.79% which is a major move for the bond market. The two-year yield tends to follow expectations for what the Federal Reserve will do with short-term interest rates. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield held at 4.26% where it was late Wednesday but it?s still well above its 3.97% level from before the war with Iran started. Higher Treasury yields have already sent rates for mortgages and other kinds of loans upward and a report on Thursday showed sales of new U.S. homes unexpectedly weakened in January.

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