Economic Buzz: US leading economic index dips slightly in January while growth outlook softens

The Conference Board reported that its Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. slipped slightly by 0.1% in January 2026 to 97.5 (base year 2016=100), after a 0.2% drop in December. Over the past six months (July 2025 to January 2026), the index declined by 1.3%, showing a slower pace of contraction compared to the 2.6% fall seen in the previous six-month period.

Weaker consumer expectations and fewer building permits contributed to the latest decline. Despite ongoing pressure on economic activity, most components of the index have shown improvement in recent months, with 7 out of 10 indicators rising between November 2025 and January 2026. However, the latest figures do not yet reflect the economic impact of the Iran conflict. As a result, the organization has slightly lowered its U.S. GDP growth forecast for 2026 to 2.0%, which would be below 2025 levels.

Meanwhile, the Coincident Economic Index (CEI), which reflects current economic conditions, rose by 0.3% in January to 115.3, following a 0.2% increase in December. Over the last six months, the CEI has grown modestly by 0.3%, matching its previous half-year performance. All four of its key components?including employment, income, sales, and industrial output?improved during the month.

The Lagging Economic Index (LAG), which tracks past economic trends, increased by 0.3% in January to 120.0, reversing a 0.2% decline in December. Its six-month growth turned positive at 0.5% for the first time since October 2025.

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