Market Speaks: IGC sees global grain output at 2460 mt in 2025-26, Wheat production seen up 5%

International Grains Council or IGC has stated in a latest monthly update that the forecast of 2025/26 world total grains (wheat and coarse grains) production is 1 million (m) tonnes (t) lower month-on-month (m/m), at 2,460 mt. Output is estimated at 2326 mt in 2024-25. The monthly reduction primarily reflects a revised barley estimate, with minor, near-offsetting changes for other crops. Factoring in smaller opening stocks, the total supply outlook is slightly tighter than before, with forecast end-season carryovers (aggregate of respective local marketing years) pegged 3 mt lower m/m, at 631 mt. Wheat production is forecast at 842 mt in 2025/26, up 5.11% on year. Including m/m increases for maize, wheat, barley and sorghum, the global trade projection is lifted by 3 mt, to 449 mt. Although forecasts remain tentative at this time, the initial global wheat supply and demand outlook appears slightly tighter in 2026/27, with expectations for a reduced harvest and further consumption gains.

The Council’s forecast for world soyabean production in 2025/26 is pegged 1 mt up from previously and just a shade below the prior year’s peak. Owing to a marginal downgrade to consumption expectations, carryover stocks are raised by 2 mt m/m, still representing a modest tightening y/y. The outlook for trade is maintained at 187 mt (+1%). In preliminary projections for 2026/27, the world area for threshing could rebound by 2% y/y on gains in leading exporters. Global rice production in 2025/26 is forecast broadly steady m/m, at a record of 543 mt. With consumption pegged modestly lower, together with a higher figure for carry-ins, end-season inventories are raised by 2 mt. The outlook for trade in 2026 (Jan/Dec) is maintained at a peak of 60 mt (+2%). Looking ahead to 2026/27, world harvested area is projected to edge up, but with much depending on state support given soft international values.

Powered by Commodity Insights