Commodities Buzz: EIA expects brent crude to average $56 per barrel in 2026, down 19% compared to last year

The US EIA has stated in a latest monthly update that global crude oil prices will decline in 2026, as global oil production exceeds global oil demand, causing oil inventories to rise. Global inventories continue increasing into 2027, albeit at a slower pace. It forecast the Brent crude oil price will average $56 per barrel (b) in 2026, 19% less than in 2025, then average $54/b in 2027.

It expects global production of liquid fuels will increase by 1.4 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2026 and 0.5 million b/d in 2027. Global liquid fuels production growth in 2026 is driven by crude oil production growth in OPEC+, while production growth in 2027 is driven by countries outside of OPEC+, primarily in South America.

EIA noted that US crude oil production. After reaching an annual record of 13.6 million b/d in 2025, we forecast US crude oil production will decrease in the forecast, declining by less than 1% in 2026 and by 2% in 2027. With sustained lower crude oil prices, we expect crude oil production will decrease as the slowdown in drilling activity will outpace increases in drilling productivity. The West Texas Intermediate price averages $52/b in 2026 and $50/b in 2027 in EIA forecast, down from $65/b in 2025.

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