Market Speak: IEA sees strong 2025 oil supply growth, trims demand outlook sharply

The International Energy Agency raised its global oil supply growth forecast to 3 million barrels per day for 2025 and 2.4 million bpd for 2026, led by surging OPEC+ production and record output from the Americas. Global supply rose by 760,000 bpd in September to 108 million bpd, as Middle East producers lifted output by nearly 1 million bpd. However, the IEA trimmed demand growth projections to just 700,000 bpd for both 2025 and 2026, citing a slowing global economy, weak transport fuel demand, and the impact of electrification. The agency warned that swelling inventories in China and the US could signal an emerging glut, as crude shipments continue to flood major hubs. Meanwhile, OPEC offered a slightly more upbeat view, holding its demand growth forecast at 1.3 million bpd for next year, with September output rising by 630,000 bpd to 43.05 million. US EIA data also pointed to growing stockpiles, with crude inventories up 1.8 million barrels, reinforcing near-term supply pressure even as refining margins rose amid disruptions to Russian facilities.

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