Market Speaks: IEA says crude oil use will remain subdued over remainder of this year

The International Energy Agency or IEA stated in a latest monthly update today that global oil demand rose by 750 thousand barrels per day (kb/d) y-o-y in 3Q25, as petrochemical feedstocks led a rebound from 2Q25’s tariff-afflicted 420 kb/d pace. IEA noted that oil use will remain subdued over the remainder of 2025 and in 2026, resulting in annual gains forecast at around 700 kb/d in both years. This is well below historical trend, as a harsher macro climate and transport electrification make for a sharp deceleration in oil consumption growth.

Total global oil supply rose by 760 kb/d m-o-m, to 108 million barrels per day (mb/d) in September, as OPEC+ production surged by 1 mb/d led by the Middle East. World oil supply is on track to rise by 3 mb/d to 106.1 mb/d this year and 2.4 mb/d next year. Non-OPEC+ adds 1.6 mb/d and 1.2 mb/d, respectively, led by the US, Brazil, Canada, Guyana and Argentina. OPEC+ adds 1.4 mb/d in 2025 and 1.2 mb/d next year based on the current production agreement.

IEA noted that global crude runs will reach a seasonal low of 81.6 mb/d in October, nearly 4 mb/d below July’s record level, as maintenance and escalating attacks on Russian infrastructure cut activity. Refinery runs will rise by 600 kb/d in 2025 and 460 kb/d in 2026, to 83.5 mb/d and 84 mb/d, respectively. Refining margins increased across the board in September. Global observed inventories rose by a further 17.7 mb in August to a four-year high of 7909 mb.

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