Commodities Buzz: OPEC says Global crude oil demand to grow at 1.3 million barrels per day in 2025

OPEC stated in a latest monthly update for October that the global oil demand growth forecast for 2025 remains at around 1.3 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from last month’s assessment. In the OECD, oil demand is forecast to grow by about 0.1 mb/d in 2025, while the non-OECD is forecast to grow by about 1.2 mb/d this year. In 2026, global oil demand is forecast to grow by around 1.4 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from last month’s assessment. The OECD demand is projected to grow by around 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, while the non-OECD is expected to grow by about 1.2 mb/d, y-o-y.

It stated further that world Oil Supply Non-DoC liquids production (i.e., liquids production from countries not participating in the Declaration of Cooperation) is forecast to grow by about 0.8 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2025, unchanged from last month’s assessment. The main growth drivers are expected to be the US, Brazil, Canada, and Argentina. The non-DoC liquids production growth forecast for 2026 remains at 0.6 mb/d, y-o-y, with Brazil, Canada, the US, and Argentina once again as the main growth drivers. Natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids from countries participating in the DoC are forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2025, to average 8.6 mb/d, followed by a similar increase of about 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2026, to average 8.8 mb/d. Crude oil production by countries participating in the DoC increased by 630 tb/d in September, m-o-m, to average about 43.05 mb/d, according to available secondary sources.

Preliminary August 2025 data show that OECD commercial inventories stood at 2,793 mb, which is 0.5 mb lower than the previous month. At this level, commercial stocks in the OECD were 45.7 mb lower than the same month last year, 92.2 mb less than the latest five-year average, and 192.0 mb below the 2015–2019 average. Within components, crude stocks fell by 10.4 mb, m-o-m, while product stocks rose by 9.9 mb, m-o-m. OECD crude oil commercial stocks stood at 1,316 mb. This was 13.1 mb lower than a year ago, 49.9 mb below the latest five-year average, and 130.9 mb less than the 2015–2019 average.

OECD total product stocks stood at 1,477 mb. This is 32.6 mb lower than a year ago, 42.3 mb less than the latest five-year average, and 61.0 mb below the 2015–2019 average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial oil stocks in August rose by 0.2 days, m-o-m, to stand at 60.2 days. This is 1.1 days lower than the level registered in August 2024, 3.6 days less than the latest five-year average, and 2.9 days lower than the 2015–2019 average.
According to OPEC, the demand for DoC crude (i.e., crude from countries participating in the DoC) remains unchanged from the previous month to stand at 42.5 mb/d in 2025. This represents an increase of 0.4 mb/d compared to the 2024 estimate. The demand for DoC crude in 2026 also remains unchanged from the previous month to stand at 43.1 mb/d, approximately 0.6 mb/d higher than the 2025 projection.

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