Market Speaks: OPEC says global oil demand to show robust growth of 9.6 million barrels per day over medium term

OPEC has come out with the World Oil Outlook (WOO) 2025 today. The global oil demand is set for continued robust growth of 9.6 million barrel per day (mb/d) over the medium-term period, rising from 103.7 mb/d in 2024 to 113.3 mb/d by 2030. The primary reason for this is strong oil demand growth in non-OECD countries, which is projected to increase by 8.6 mb/d to 2030 and reach 66.7 mb/d. Moreover, OECD oil demand is also set to increase over the same period, albeit by a much smaller 1 mb/d to reach 46.6 mb/d.

In the long term, global oil demand is projected to rise by more than 19 mb/d between 2024 and 2050, reaching almost 123 mb/d. While non-OECD oil demand is projected to increase by almost 28 mb/d over the period, OECD oil demand is set to witness a decline of 8.5 mb/d. India, Other Asia, the Middle East and Africa are set to be the primary sources of long-term oil demand growth. Combined demand in these four regions is set to increase by 22.4 mb/d between 2024 and 2050, with India alone adding 8.2 mb/d. China’s oil demand is projected to increase by less than 2 mb/d over the same time horizon.

Non-Declaration of Cooperation (non-DoC) liquids production is set to increase from 53.3 mb/d in 2024 to 59 mb/d in 2030, or by 5.7 mb/d. The US is expected to drive this growth, contributing 1.4 mb/d, or just over 25%, followed by Brazil, Qatar, Canada, Argentina and others. Tight oil remains the key element supporting rising US liquids production, with volumes increasing from 14.7 mb/d in 2024 to 16.5 mb/d in 2030. Thereafter, however, due to gradual resource depletion, output is projected to plateau around those levels for most of the 2030s, and subsequently decline to 14.8 mb/d by 2050.

US liquids supply is set to peak at just over 23 mb/d in 2030, while total non-DoC liquids are now expected to hit a peak of around 60 mb/d in the mid-2030s, and then remain at a plateau just below that level until 2050. OPEC stated that it sees global oil industry investment requirements of $18.2 trillion out to 2050. It is vital that these investments are made for consumers and producers everywhere, as well as for the effective functioning of the global economy at large.

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