GIFT Nifty hints at muted opening for equities ahead of RBI policy meet outcome

GIFT Nifty:

GIFT Nifty September 2025 futures were trading with a cut of 10.00 points (or 0.04%) in early trade, indicating a possible flat start to the Nifty 50 today.

The Reserve Bank of India?s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is concluding its three-day meeting today, with Governor Sanjay Malhotra set to announce the outcome at 10 AM. The repo rate currently stands at 5.5%. While some reports hint at a possible rate cut amid controlled inflation and weak demand, others expect the RBI to hold steady and gauge the impact of recent GST reforms. In its previous meeting in August, the MPC had unanimously kept the rate unchanged.

Institutional Flows:

Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) sold shares worth Rs 2,327.09 crore, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were net buyers to the tune of Rs 5,761.63 crore in the Indian equity market on 30 September 2025, provisional data showed.

According to public data, FPIs have sold shares worth Rs 35,301.36 crore in the cash market in September 2025. This follows their cash sales of shares worth Rs 46,902.92 crore in August 2025.

Indian Economy:

India's fiscal deficit in April-August was 5.98 trillion rupees ($67.34 billion) or 38.1% of the estimate for the financial year ending March 31, government data showed on Tuesday.

India?s net tax receipts stood at Rs 8.1 trillion, lower than the Rs 8.7 trillion collected in the same period last year. Non-tax revenue rose to Rs 4.4 trillion from Rs 3.3 trillion a year ago. Total government expenditure increased to Rs 18.8 trillion compared with Rs 16.5 trillion in the year-earlier period. Capital expenditure, which refers to spending on physical infrastructure, came in at Rs 4.3 trillion, up from Rs 3 trillion a year ago.

Global Markets:

Asia market traded mixed on Wednesday, following gains on Wall Street as investors appeared unperturbed by a looming U.S. government shutdown.

Markets on mainland China and Hong Kong were closed for a holiday.

Over in Japan, the central bank released the results for its third-quarter Tankan survey.

The index for business optimism among large Japanese manufacturers increased to +14 for the third quarter from +13 in the previous quarter but was lower than the +15 expected by economists polled by Reuters. The non-manufacturing index held steady at +34.

Overnight in the U.S., stocks ended higher on Tuesday as investors looked past concerns over a potential government shutdown and marked an unusually strong September.

The S&P 500 rose 0.41% to close at 6,688.46, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.31% to finish at 22,660.01. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 81.82 points, or 0.18%, to settle at 46,397.89, setting a new closing high.

Domestic Market:

Equity benchmarks closed with minor losses on Tuesday, marking the eighth straight day of decline. Volatility from the NSE?s monthly F&O expiry and caution ahead of the RBI's MPC outcome kept investors on edge, dragging the Nifty below 24,650. Consumer durables and media shares slipped, while PSU banks, metal and auto counters advanced.

Investors now await the RBI's policy commentary on Wednesday, with no rate change expected. Tariff policies and the upcoming earnings season are set to shape the market's next direction.

The S&P BSE Sensex declined 97.32 points or 0.12% to 80,267.62. The Nifty 50 index lost 23.80 points or 0.10% to 24,611.10. In eight trading sessions, the Sensex has plummeted 3.31% and the Nifty has tumbled 3.20%.

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