Commodities Buzz: World grain output seen hitting record high, IGC expects production to rise 4% on year

International Grains Council or IGC stated in a latest monthly update that world total grains production in 2025/26 is boosted by 8 million (m) tonnes (t) m/m (month-on-month), to 2,412m, up by 4% y/y (year-on-year). Despite unusually small carry-in stocks, the record crop will lift total supply above 3,000m t for the first time ever. The projection for total consumption is 4m t higher m/m, at 2,395m, mostly on an uprated feed estimate (wheat and maize). Taking into account larger than previously estimated opening stocks, the figure for world carryover inventories (aggregate of respective local marketing years) is raised by 9m t m/m, to 606m. Owing to projected stronger wheat import demand, the Council's trade estimate is lifted for a second month in a row, to 438m t.

The Council’s outlook for world rice production in 2025/26 is unchanged m/m but, due to elevated carry-in stocks, supplies are lifted from previously. Together with a marginal downgrading of consumption, this feeds through to a 3m t m/m increase in carryovers, pegged at an all-time high. Trade is projected steady m/m, at around 60m t (+2%). The IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) was down by 4% y/y.

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