The Indian government is activating emergency contingency plans as Middle East conflict disrupts 90%+ of LPG imports (21.53 million tonnes in 2025), with Saudi Aramco's Ras Tanura force majeure and Hormuz shipping halt threatening household supplies for PM Ujjwala and BPL households.

Government's immediate operational response for possible LPG Crisis :-

1. Boost domestic LPG production

• State refiners (IOC, BPCL, HPCL) ramping up LPG output from existing crude processing to cushion import losses,
• Petroleum Minister Hardeep Puri confirmed "sufficient reserves of crude oil and petroleum products" for short‑term management, with 24x7 control room monitoring fuel stocks nationwide.

2. Diversify import sources

• Russia steps up: Moscow offers to fulfil India's energy demands if Gulf supplies falter, including LPG and LNG alongside crude.
• US LPG ramp‑up: Plans to import ~10% cooking gas from US starting 2026 accelerated; refiners already notified Gulf suppliers (Saudi, UAE, Qatar) of lower term volumes.

3. High‑level coordination

• Multi‑agency review meetings with PSUs (IOC, GAIL, Petronet) to assess contingency plans and prioritise domestic allocation.
• Export curtailment: Govt may ask refiners to divert auto fuel and LPG to domestic market by cutting exports, ensuring household priority.

Policy levers to protect consumers :-

• Subsidy and pricing interventions

• PM Ujjwala protection: Direct Benefit Transfer (DBT) to ~10 crore BPL households insulated from immediate price hikes; subsidy buffer absorbs landed cost increases.
• Non‑subsidised cylinders: Market‑priced cylinders (commercial, premium household) may see gradual hikes if disruptions persist, but govt can cap via temporary pricing controls.

• Fiscal measures

• Excise duty flexibility: Similar to 2022 crude shock, govt can slash excise on LPG to offset import costs, though fiscal deficit constraints limit scale.
• OMC under‑recovery support: Budgetary allocation or oil bonds to compensate IOC/BPCL/HPCL for maintaining stable cylinder prices.

Diversification and long‑term resilience :-

• Supply diversification progress

• US LPG pivot: Refiners already cutting Middle East term contracts (Saudi, UAE, Qatar, Kuwait), ramping delivered US LPG volumes.
• Russia as backstop: Moscow’s offer covers crude, LPG, LNG if Gulf flows falter; India’s Russian crude share already ~40%.

• Infrastructure buffers

• No large strategic LPG reserves, but commercial stocks + refinery output provide weeks of buffer; govt prioritising household allocation over industrial/commercial.
• 24x7 monitoring ensures no panic hoarding or distribution bottlenecks.

Strengths of India’s LPG response

• 24x7 control room and high‑level PSU coordination prevents supply panic.
• Russia’s energy backstop offer covers LPG alongside crude/LNG.
• US LPG diversification (target 10% by 2026) already accelerating.
• PM Ujjwala DBT protects 10 crore households from price shocks.
• Refiners’ ability to boost domestic LPG output from crude processing.

Risks in government’s LPG strategy

• No strategic LPG reserves vs crude; thinner buffer for prolonged disruptions.
• Subsidy bill ballooning if Middle East cargoes stay offline.
• Fiscal strain from excise cuts/under‑recovery support amid rising deficits.
• Rupee depreciation worsens import bill if conflict escalates.
• Commercial LPG shortages if household priority strains allocation.