Market Speak: EIA forecasts sharp drop in Brent crude to $50 per barrel by early 2026

The EIA?s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook expects Brent crude oil prices to decline sharply in the coming months, falling from $68 per barrel in August to an average of $59 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2025, and further down to around $50 per barrel in early 2026. This bearish outlook is driven by large global oil inventory builds, with OPEC+ members ramping up production. From 3Q25 through 1Q26, global inventories are projected to grow by over 2 million barrels per day. The report anticipates that persistently low prices will eventually prompt both OPEC+ and non-OPEC producers to cut supply, easing inventory pressures later in 2026. The EIA forecasts Brent crude will average $51 per barrel next year, signaling a tough period for oil markets. This outlook was finalized before OPEC+ confirmed plans to boost production by 137,000 barrels per day in October 2025, adding further weight to the expected supply glut.

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