Economic Buzz: Sharp downgrade to US employment growth adds to fed rate cut hopes

Job growth in the U.S. in the 12 months to March was significantly less than what was reported earlier, preliminary revisions released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed on Tuesday, signaling that the labor market began cooling earlier than estimated and strengthened the case for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve next week.

The latest Current Employment Statistics (CES) national benchmark revision revealed that the employment growth figure for the 12-month period to March was revised lower by 911,000 or 0.6 percent, which is the biggest in recent decades. The downgrade means that the U.S. economy created less than half the jobs previously reported for the time period.

The Fed is widely expected to lower the federal funds rate after holding steady thus far this year. A 25-basis-point cut is forecast as the labor market cools, while inflation remains strong.

The final benchmark revision will be issued in February 2026 with the January 2026 jobs report.

CES employment estimates are benchmarked to comprehensive counts of employment from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) and these are extracted from state unemployment insurance tax records filed by employers, according to the BLS.

The not seasonally adjusted total nonfarm employment estimate for March 2024 was revised down by 598,000 or 0.4 percent in February.

The report showed downgrades in job growth levels in all industries with information, leisure and hospitality and wholesale trade having significant markdowns.

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